National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA

fxus66 kpqr 052234
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland, OR
230 pm pst mon jan 5 2009

.synopsis...the next major weather event will begin later tonight
as a strong warm front spreads rain across the area. warm rains will
continue tue through thu morning with the highest totals across the
north oregon coast range and southwest washington. it will also be
quite windy along the coast during this time. this heavy rain
combined with very high snow levels will produce a significant flood
risk across much of the area. a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
develop late in the week to finally give us a reprieve in the weather
for a few days.

&&

.short term...radar and satellite imagery continues to show shallow
moisture moving across the area this afternoon. the associated
showers will decrease tonight as onshore flow relaxes. all eyes then
turn to the strong jet approaching the district from the pacific. a
strong warm front will spread rain across the area beginning late
tonight. a series of disturbances will follow tue night through wed
continuing heavy rain at times across much of the area. the latest
model runs show the heaviest rains in our forecast area in this time
period focused across southwest washington. the final and strongest
disturbance will be a cold front that will move from north to south
across the area wed night and thu morning. snow levels will rise
above the passes tonight and remain very high until the final cold
front moves through wed night and thu. heavy rains combined with high
snow levels will produce the risk of flooding and a flood watch has
been issued for this. it will also be quite windy along the coast tue
afternoon through thu morning. as each disturbance moves by during
this period winds will increase and may reach high wind criteria at
times. the strongest winds will likely occur wed night through thu as
the final cold front moves through. a high wind watch has been issued
for this as well.

.long term...guidance in good agreement showing an upper ridge
centered off of northern ca and dominating the eastern pac during
the extended 4 to 7 day period. however the ridge may be a bit too
far s to guarantee completely dry weather...with the potential of a
weak system moving through the n part of the ridge at times and
brushing the northern zones. at this time pops below climatology
look appropriate. night and morning fog looks likely especially
sheltered southern inland valleys...while e gorge winds appear to be
fairly weak. rw


&&

.hydro...just one flood warning left for the pudding river. the
pudding river typically takes days to recede and rainfall over the
next few days will slow the current recession. a very wet and warm
period will begin tonight and continue through thu. as a result...a
flood watch been issued for tue night through fri for all of
northwest oregon and southwest washington.

&&

.aviation...mostly vfr this afternoon with showers and mvfr
conditions scattered about the forecast area. a warm front will
approach the area tonight and tue morning. should see widespread
mvfr conditions as this warm front moves in...with ifr conditions at
the coast. expect rain and mvfr conditions at the coast by
08-10z...with ifr conditions possible at the coast through about 16z
tue. mvfr conditions expected at all inland sites by 10-12z. warm
front should lift through konp...ksle and keug by 18z tue...but may
be closer to 22z lifting through kast and north valley sites. expect
a return to solid mvfr conditions behind the warm front...as well as
strong winds at the coast of 19015g30kt. inland winds expected to be
more on the order of 18012g20kt behind the warm front.

kpdx and approaches...vfr cigs through roughly 06z...with a gradual
decline to ovc012-015 expected through 09z. there is a possibility
of some ifr cigs after 09z...but not completely sold on this so do
not plan on including them in 00z package.  dalton
&&

.marine...seas still above 10 ft this afternoon and will remain that
way through tuesday. a warm front will spread into the waters after
midnight tonight. this will bring solid small craft winds to all
waters by 12z tue morning. gusts will approach gale force tue
morning...but think they will stay just shy of gale. decided to
issue a small craft advisory for winds for late tonight through tue
morning. a frontal wave will move into the waters tue afternoon and
will likely increase winds to gale force. this will occur in the
northern waters tue evening...then slide south of cascade head for
gales in southern waters tue night into wednesday. the cold front
finally pushes through the waters late wed night or thu morning and
allows winds to finally drop below small craft advisory
levels...though seas will
remain above 10 ft into friday afternoon. dalton

&&

.pqr watches/warnings/advisories...
or/wa...gale watch in effect tue afternoon through tue night.
     ...small craft advisory for winds late tonight through tuesday
         afternoon.
     ...small craft advisory for hazardous seas through tue
         afternoon.
     ...small craft advisory for rough columbia bar through tue
         afternoon.
     ...flood watch for all of northwest oregon and southwest
         washington tue night through fri.
     ...high wind watch for the south washington and the north and
       central oregon coast tue afternoon through thu morning.
&&

$$

more weather information online at...
http://weather.gov/portland

this discussion is for northwest oregon and southwest washington from
the cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. the area is commonly
referred to as the forecast area.